Year 1 vs year 2: the energy price cliff

How big is the jump with each supplier?

One row per supplier, on the headline sign-up plan each one actually advertises, at CRU typical usage — 4,200 kWh of electricity, 11,000 kWh of gas — urban standing charges, all levies and 9% VAT included. "Year 1" is the estimated annual bill with the new-customer discount; "year 2" is the same house on the same meter once the discount expires and the standard rate applies. Every figure was verified on the supplier's own site on 28 August 2026. Sorted by the size of the cliff.

Three patterns are worth naming. First, the deepest discounts dig the deepest holes: Energia and SSE Airtricity hand new customers 30% off units, which is exactly why their cliffs are the two biggest — around €537 and €518 a year. Second, the two flat rows at the bottom are flat for opposite reasons: Community Power refuses to run a teaser at all (one variable rate for everyone), and Prepay Power is pay-as-you-go, where there is no discount to expire — note that flat does not mean cheap, since Prepay Power's €2,106 sits above every discounted bill-pay year-1 figure in the table. Third, gas cliffs are gentler than electricity cliffs: Bord Gáis gas steps up about €110, because its sign-up discount is only 9% to begin with.

Bord Gáis deserves one honest asterisk: it is the only big brand with a published landing mechanism, a 5% loyalty discount that continues after year 1 on its discount plans — a smaller cliff by design, though the standard electricity rate behind it (41.59c/kWh after the October 2025 rise) is still steep.

What does the cliff look like drawn to scale?

The same numbers as bars — green is what a new customer pays in year 1, rust is the standard-rate bill waiting in year 2. Every bar is scaled against the dearest figure on the page (€2,173, Flogas's standard electricity EAB), so the lengths are directly comparable across suppliers.

Two things the bars show that the table hides. The year-2 bars are remarkably similar lengths — roughly €1,868 to €2,173 — because standard rates cluster; the competition in Irish energy happens almost entirely in the green bars. And Community Power's pair, identical by design, lands in the middle: dearer than every teaser in year 1, cheaper than every standard rate in year 2. Which pair is "cheapest" depends entirely on whether you will actually act at month 11.

What do "standard rate" and "variable" actually mean?

Standard rate is the supplier's undiscounted price list — the rate your plan reverts to when the 12-month discount ends, and the rate a household that has never switched is already on. It is not a penalty rate in the small print; it is simply the full price, and the sign-up discount was the deviation. Suppliers publish it on their tariff pages, which is where every year-2 figure above comes from.

Variable means the rate can change with notice — up or down — at any time, including during your 12-month term. This is the part switchers most often misread: on most Irish plans the contract fixes you in for 12 months (leaving early costs an exit fee), but it does not fix the price. Yuno's terms are the clearest example — every Yuno plan is variable, and it raised electricity 9.5% and gas 11% from July 2026, mid-contract, with notice. A genuinely fixed plan, where units and standing charge are locked for the term, is rare; SSE Airtricity sells one, and charges a €100-per-fuel exit fee on it instead of the usual €50.

So the full picture of a sign-up deal is: a discounted variable rate for 12 months, then the standard variable rate after. Both ends can move. The cliff table above is a snapshot of 28 August 2026 — the shape is permanent, the exact euro figures are not.

How do I read the discount on my bill?

You do not need to decode the whole bill to know where you stand — three lines do it:

• The discount line. Look in the charges breakdown for a line such as "discount", "% off units" or a plan name with a percentage. If it is there, you are still in year 1. If your usage line is priced at one rate with no deduction — and last year there was one — the cliff has already happened.
• The unit rate. Compare the cent-per-kWh on the bill with the supplier's published standard rate. A 24-hour electricity rate around 30–35c in August 2026 is a discounted rate; around 38–44c is a standard one.
• The contract end date. Suppliers must show your fixed-term end date on the bill — it is the single most useful number on the page. That date, minus a month, is when your calendar reminder belongs.

Two quirks to expect. The percentage never applies to the standing charge or the PSO levy, so a "26% off" plan does not produce a bill 26% lower — the discount works on the units only. And discounts at several suppliers are conditional: Bord Gáis and Flogas require direct debit and paperless billing, and the discount can stop if you drop either, cliff or no cliff.

Which credits and cashback are year-1 only?

Alongside the percentage discounts, most suppliers dangle a one-off credit — and none of it survives into year 2. At our 28 August 2026 check: Electric Ireland pays a €120 welcome bonus on its 24-hour plan, €60 on the smart single-rate plan and €135 on dual fuel; Yuno was crediting a €180 welcome bonus on electricity and €200 on dual fuel (sign-up dependent); Prepay Power's €100 welcome credit was end-dated 31 August 2026; and Pinergy offers €110 (€30 plus €80) to new PAYG sign-ups.

Treat credits as a tie-breaker, never the headline. None of them is included in the estimated annual bills above — supplier EABs exclude one-off credits, and so do ours — so a €120 bonus effectively takes a real year-1 bill of €1,612 down to about €1,492 once. In year 2 the credit is gone and the cliff is exactly as tall as it was. A supplier whose maths only works with the cashback counted is a supplier whose maths does not work.

Do price rises stack on top of the cliff?

Yes — and 2025–26 proved it. Because standard rates are variable, the year-2 figure you land on can be higher than the one you signed up beside. Every supplier we track except Community Power has raised prices since autumn 2025:

Read that table against the cliff table and the compounding is obvious: a household that signed a Bord Gáis discount plan in summer 2025 took a 13.5% variable rise in October and then lost its 26% discount at month 13. The two mechanisms are independent — a rise moves both bars, the cliff is the jump between them — which is why "my supplier put prices up" and "my discount ended" so often land within months of each other and get blamed on each other. A mid-contract rise is also worth re-shopping around, exit fee included: on most plans the fee is €50 per fuel, against cliffs of €240–€537.

What should I actually do at month 11?

The whole defence against the cliff is one calendar entry. When you sign any 12-month energy deal, create a reminder for eleven months later — the day you sign, while the welcome email with the contract end date is in front of you. When it fires:

1. Confirm the end date. It is on your bill and in the welcome pack. Your goal is a switch that completes just after that date — inside the term, most suppliers charge an exit fee (€50 per fuel at most brands, €100 at Yuno, €150 ex VAT at Pinergy).
2. Price the do-nothing option. Find your supplier's standard rate for your meter type and multiply it out — or just use the year-2 column above. That is your bill if the reminder achieves nothing.
3. Price two rivals' year-1 deals. The ranking carries both columns for every supplier, and the matcher narrows it by meter and fuel in half a minute.
4. Make one retention call (script below). Ten minutes, with the rival's figure written down first.
5. Order the switch in month 11, not month 12. A switch takes two to four weeks, so an order placed at month 11 lands almost exactly as the discount dies — no fee, no gap at the standard rate. Take a meter reading on the day it completes. The full mechanics are in how to switch energy supplier.

Should I ring retention or just switch again?

Both work; the maths decides. Switching gets you a full new-customer discount — the biggest possible step down — at the cost of a small amount of admin and a new 12-month clock. A retention deal is usually shallower than the sign-up discount but takes ten minutes and keeps your direct debit, app and billing history exactly as they are. What never works is silence: the standard rate is the price of not asking.

One warning either way: a retention deal is a new 12-month arrangement. Ask what rate it reverts to, whether an exit fee applies, and then set the next month-11 reminder before you hang up. The cliff is not a one-off event — it is an annual feature of how this market prices loyalty.

Why does matched.ie print year-2 costs on every ranking?

Because ranking suppliers on the teaser alone is how the cliff stays profitable. A table sorted by year-1 price will happily crown a supplier whose standard rate is the dearest on the market; the same table with a year-2 column tells you what the deal costs if life gets busy and month 13 slips past — which, for most households, is the realistic case. So every energy ranking we publish, from the flagship to cheapest electricity, carries both columns, with urban and rural shown separately and a dash wherever a figure was not verified on the supplier's own site that week.

Worth saying plainly: matched.ie is not a CRU-accredited price-comparison site — the accredited list lives at cru.ie if you want a regulated comparator to run your own kWh through. What we add is the second column and the reminder ritual: the two things the teaser price is designed to make you forget.

About the author

Conor Ryan

Energy Switching Analyst

Conor Ryan has tracked Irish gas and electricity prices, tariffs and switching since 2019. He builds matched.ie’s energy comparison tools and tests how smart meters and time-of-use plans affect household bills.

7+ years analysing Irish energy marketsCertified in Energy Efficiency (SEAI) and Electricity SupplyFocus on SSE Airtricity, Electric Ireland, Energia and Bord GáisBased in Limerick, covers domestic and small-business tariffs